1978 New Zealand general election

1978 New Zealand general election

25 November 1978 (1978-11-25)
92 seats in the Parliament 47 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Robert Muldoon Bill Rowling Bruce Beetham Party National Labour Social Credit Leader since 9 July 1974 6 September 1974 14 May 1972 Leader's seat Tamaki Tasman Rangitīkei Last election 55 seats, 47.6% 32 seats, 39.6% 0 seats, 7.4% Seats before 54 32 1 Seats won 51 40 1 Seat change 3 8 Popular vote 680,991 691,076 274,756 Percentage 39.8% 40.4% 16.1% Swing 7.8% 0.8% 8.7%
Results by electorate, shaded by winning margin
Prime Minister before election Robert Muldoon National Subsequent Prime Minister Robert Muldoon National

The 1978 New Zealand general election was a nationwide vote to elect the 39th New Zealand Parliament. It saw the governing National Party, led by Robert Muldoon, retain office, but the opposition Labour Party won the largest share of the vote. Reorganisation of the enrolment system caused major problems with the electoral rolls, which left a legacy of unreliable information about voting levels in this election.

Background

The National Party had won a resounding victory in the 1975 elections, taking fifty-five of the eighty-seven seats and ousting the Labour Party from government. Labour had been led by Bill Rowling, who had assumed the post of Prime Minister on the death in office of the popular Norman Kirk. Labour won the remaining thirty-two seats in that election, with no other parties gaining entry to Parliament.

Labour's Rowling had been criticised by many for inadequately countering Muldoon's confrontational style, and was widely perceived as "weak". Following Labour's defeat, there had been speculation about replacing Rowling as leader of the party, but Rowling retained his position. Gradually, as some people wearied of Muldoon's style, Rowling's more reserved manner was held up as an asset rather than a weakness, and Labour began to gain a certain amount of traction again. Economic troubles hurt the government, and its reputation had fallen. Muldoon remained a powerful opponent, however, and was regarded as a strong campaigner.

Not long before the 1978 election, a by-election in Rangitikei caused considerable comment when it introduced a third party to Parliament: Bruce Beetham, leader of the Social Credit Party. Although other parties dismissed Social Credit's success as a fluke, Beetham predicted a great future for the party.

MPs retiring in 1978

Five National MPs and three Labour MPs intended to retire at the end of the 38th Parliament.

Party		Name	Electorate	Term of office	Date announced
	National	Peter Gordon	Clutha	1960–78	28 October 1977
		Allan McCready	Manawatu	1960–78	8 August 1977
		Ed Latter	Marlborough	1975–78	18 August 1978
		Harry Lapwood	Rotorua	1960–78	18 August 1977
		Ray La Varis	Taupo	1975–78	4 November 1977
	Labour	Martyn Finlay	Henderson	1946–49 1963–78	25 May 1977
		Roger Drayton	St Albans	1969–78	8 September 1977
		Paddy Blanchfield	West Coast	1960–78	16 July 1977

Sir Stanley Whitehead MP for Nelson had announced he would retire at the end of the term in 1978, due to ill-health, but he died on 9 January 1976 triggering a by-election instead.

Opinion polling

Poll	Date	National	Labour	Social Credit	Values	Lead
1978 election result	25 Nov 1978	39.82	40.41	16.07	2.41	0.59
TVNZ Heylen	18 Nov 1978	38	39	20	4	1
NBR	1 Nov 1978	44	35	17	3	9
TVNZ Heylen	28 Oct 1978	45	38	14	3	7
TVNZ Heylen	30 Sep 1978	44	36	17	3	8
NBR	1 Sep 1978	44	35	16	4	9
TVNZ Heylen	15 Aug 1978	46	39	11	4	7
TVNZ Heylen	15 Jul 1978	46	39	12	3	7
NBR	1 Jul 1978	47	36	14	3	11
TVNZ Heylen	15 Jun 1978	45	37	15	4	8
TVNZ Heylen	15 May 1978	43	38	16	4	5
NBR	1 May 1978	40	37	16	4	3
TVNZ Heylen	15 Apr 1978	39	38	18	5	1
TVNZ Heylen	15 Mar 1978	43	33	18	5	10
NBR	1 Mar 1978	41	31	22	5	7
TVNZ Heylen	15 Feb 1978	45	35	14	6	7
NBR	1 Jan 1978	45	37	13	5	8
TVNZ Heylen	15 Dec 1977	47	39	8	6	8
NBR	1 Nov 1977	48	37	9	5	11
TVNZ Heylen	15 Oct 1977	47	40	8	6	7
TVNZ Heylen	15 Sep 1977	46	41	7	6	5
TVNZ Heylen	15 Aug 1977	48	38	9	6	10
TVNZ Heylen	15 Jun 1977	48	43	4	5	5
TVNZ Heylen	15 May 1977	47	40	8	5	7
TVNZ Heylen	15 Feb 1977	46	37	10	8	9
TVNZ Heylen	15 Jun 1976	48	39	8	5	9

Electoral changes

Problems

In 1975 several reforms had been made to the electoral system. These included combining the re-enrolment process with the taking of the 1976 census and replacing existing Justice Department registrars with electorate officers appointed from Post Office Staff. They would work in conjunction with Statistics Department and Electoral Office staff, and at the same time, a switch would be made from a manual to a computerised system.

A report completed in 1979 found that there had been poor liaison between the various departments involved, staff shortages and problems with the computer system. However, the main problem arose from the decision to combine re-enrolment with the 1976 census. Many voters had been confused by the need to re-enrol only a year after the previous election, and many had not bothered to fill out their forms. Census staff had not been given the authority to insist on the card being completed.

To avoid disenfranchising a significant portion of the electorate, the Chief Electoral Officer decided just to carry forward many old voter registrations in the hope that duplications and outdated enrolments would be purged later. However, not enough staff were provided to complete that in time, and by the time that the rolls closed, 35,000 forms remained unprocessed.

It has been estimated that as many as 460,000 enrolments may have been outdated or duplicates. Many voters (even candidates) found themselves enrolled in the wrong electorate or off the roll completely, and others were enrolled in multiple electorates or several times in the same electorate. That means that accurate figures for electoral turnout are impossible to determine, and other figures may not be reliable.

Electoral redistribution

The 1977 electoral redistribution was the most overtly political since the Representation Commission had been established by an amendment to the Representation Act in 1886, initiated by Muldoon's National Government. That a large number of people failed to fill out an electoral re-registration card had little practical effect for the electoral redistribution for people on the general roll, but it transferred Māori to the general roll if the card was not handed in. Together with a northward shift of New Zealand's population, that resulted in five new electorates having to be created in the upper part of the North Island.

The electoral redistribution was very disruptive, and 22 electorates were abolished (see list below), and 27 electorates were newly created or re-established. In the North Island, fifteen electorates were newly created (Albany, East Cape, Eastern Hutt, Helensville, Horowhenua, Hunua, Kaimai, Matamata, Ōhāriu, Papakura, Papatoetoe, Pencarrow, Rangiriri, Tarawera, and Te Atatū) and six electorates were re-created (Bay of Islands, Kaipara, Taranaki, Waipa, Waitakere, and Waitotara). In the South Island, two electorates were newly created (Otago and Yaldhurst) and four electorates were re-created (Ashburton, Fendalton, Selwyn, and Waitaki). The changes came into effect for the 1978 election.

The election

The election was held on 25 November. There were 2,489,510 people officially registered to vote in the elections, making the election the first one in which there were more than two million registered voters. However, the electoral roll in 1978 was significantly out of date and contained numerous duplicate entries. The cause of this confusion was a major redistribution of electoral boundaries, which had been implemented the year before. The actual number of potential voters is estimated to have been about 2,100,000, and actual turnout is estimated to have been about 80% (as compared to the official turnout of only 68.70%), slightly lower than the turnout for the previous election.

Summary of results

The 1978 election saw the National Party win fifty-one seats in parliament, a majority of several seats. This allowed it to retain power. The Labour Party won forty seats. The Social Credit Party retained the Rangitikei seat, which it had won in a by-election shortly before the election. No other parties won seats, and there were no successful independent candidates.

While National won a majority of seats in parliament, it did not actually win a majority of the vote. Labour received the highest number of votes, winning slightly more than forty percent. National, by contrast, won slightly less than forty percent. Social Credit, despite winning only one seat, actually received around sixteen percent of the vote. The election night result had National with more seats, but many seats had small majorities and it was conceivable that if special votes overturned enough electorates Labour could form a government. Ultimately this did not eventuate however.

While the Hunua electorate was initially won by Malcolm Douglas (Labour), the result was overturned by the High Court and Winston Peters (National) became the MP for Hunua.

Detailed results

Party totals

Party		Candidates	Total votes	Percentage	Seats won	Change
	National	92	680,991	39.82	51	-4
	Labour	92	691,076	40.41	40	+8
	Social Credit	92	274,756	16.07	1	+1
	Values	92	41,220	2.41	0	±0
	National Socialist	1	22	0.00	-	±0
	Independent	53	22,130	1.29	0	±0
	Total	421	1,710,173		92	+5

Votes summary

Popular Vote Labour   40.41% National   39.82% Social Credit   16.07% Values   2.41% Independents   1.29%

Parliament seats National   55.43% Labour   43.48% Social Credit   1.09%

Results by electorate

The tables below shows the results of the 1978 general election:

Key

  National   Labour   Social Credit

Electorate results for the 1978 New Zealand general election

Electorate	Incumbent		Winner		Majority	Runner up
General electorates
Albany	New electorate			Don McKinnon	1,159		David Rankin
Ashburton	New electorate			Rob Talbot	3.005		John Srhoy
Auckland Central		Richard Prebble			5,284		Maire Cole
Avon		Mary Batchelor			8,215		Tom George
Awarua		Rex Austin			1,450		Bill Devine
Bay of Islands	New electorate			Neill Austin	1,682		William Guy McPherson
Birkenhead		Jim McLay			2,534		Rex Stanton
Christchurch Central		Bruce Barclay			5,947		Gwen Clucas
Clutha		Peter Gordon		Robin Gray	1,427		F A O'Connell
Dunedin Central		Brian MacDonell			3,413		M B Ablett
Dunedin North		Richard Walls		Stan Rodger	2,850		Richard Walls
East Cape	New electorate			Duncan MacIntyre	2,533		O P Drabble
East Coast Bays		Frank Gill			1,566		Colleen Hicks
Eastern Hutt	New electorate			Trevor Young	5,373		Rosemary Young
Eden		Aussie Malcolm			648		John Hinchcliff
Fendalton	New electorate			Eric Holland	1,956		David Close
Gisborne		Bob Bell			213		Allan Wallbank
Hamilton East		Ian Shearer			1,361		Lois Welch
Hamilton West		Mike Minogue			1,006		Dorothy Jelicich
Hastings		Bob Fenton		David Butcher	334		Bob Fenton
Hauraki	New electorate			Leo Schultz	2,019		Gordon Miller
Hawkes Bay		Richard Harrison			1,908		Mike Cullen
Helensville	New electorate			Dail Jones	1,199		Jack Elder
Heretaunga		Ron Bailey			2,744		John Ward
Horowhenua	New electorate			Geoff Thompson	744		Alan Charles Eyles
Hunua	New electorate			Winston Peters	192		Malcolm Douglas
Invercargill		Norman Jones			256		Aubrey Begg
Island Bay		Gerald O'Brien		Frank O'Flynn	650		Bill Nathan
Kaimai	New electorate			Bruce Townshend	3,476		Douglas Conway
Kaipara	New electorate			Peter Wilkinson	520		Nevern McConachy
Kapiti		Barry Brill			23		Margaret Shields
King Country		Jim Bolger			2,770		Leo Menefy
Lyttelton		Colleen Dewe		Ann Hercus	1,423		Colleen Dewe
Manawatu		Allan McCready		Michael Cox	2,913		Trevor de Cleene
Mangere		David Lange			6,263		Peter Saunders
Manurewa		Merv Wellington		Roger Douglas	2,467		Peter O'Brien
Marlborough		Ed Latter		Doug Kidd	323		Ian Brooks
Matamata	New electorate			Jack Luxton	4,407		David Mawdsley
Miramar		Bill Young			315		Bill Jeffries
Mt Albert		Warren Freer			2,861		Frank Ryan
Napier		Gordon Christie			2,927		Kevin Rose
Nelson		Mel Courtney			2,239		Peter Malone
New Lynn		Jonathan Hunt			4,390		Jacky Bridges
New Plymouth		Tony Friedlander			112		Dennis Duggan
North Shore		George Gair			4,650		Gene Leckey
Onehunga		Frank Rogers			1,417		Barrie Hutchinson
Ohariu	New electorate			Hugh Templeton	1,958		Helene Ritchie
Otago	New electorate			Warren Cooper	3,722		R J Rutherford
Otahuhu		Bob Tizard			4,762		Ray Ah Chee
Pahiatua		John Falloon			6,675		P M A Hills
Pakuranga		Gavin Downie		Pat Hunt	2,111		Elsa Smith
Palmerston North		John Lithgow		Joe Walding	2,736		John Lithgow
Papakura	New electorate			Merv Wellington	3,622		Geoff Braybrooke
Papanui		Bert Walker		Mike Moore	3,289		Bert Walker
Papatoetoe	New electorate			Eddie Isbey	1,511		Colin Bidois
Pencarrow	New electorate			Fraser Colman	3,649		Brett Newell
Porirua		Gerry Wall			3,657		Alan Perry
Rangiora		Derek Quigley			1,145		Don McKenzie
Rangiriri	New electorate			Bill Birch	2,276		Robert Frederick McKee
Rangitikei		Bruce Beetham			2,853		Les Gandar
Remuera		Allan Highet			5,771		Lee Goffin
Roskill		Arthur Faulkner			1,671		John Banks
Rotorua		Harry Lapwood		Paul East	1,020		Peter Tapsell
St Albans		Roger Drayton		David Caygill	3,679		Neil Russell
St Kilda		Bill Fraser			2,959		Graeme Laing
Selwyn	New electorate			Colin McLachlan	1,232		Bill Woods
Sydenham		John Kirk			7,040		Ian Wilson
Tamaki		Robert Muldoon			6,310		Audie Cooke-Pennefather
Taranaki	New electorate			David Thomson	4,573		K A Tracey
Tarawera	New electorate			Ian Mclean	2,022		JJ Stewart
Tasman		Bill Rowling			1,794		Ruth Richardson
Taupo		Ray La Varis		Jack Ridley	609		Lesley A. Miller
Tauranga		Keith Allen			3,318		Paul Hills
Te Atatu		Michael Bassett			2,819		W R Cross
Timaru		Sir Basil Arthur			2,183		Bill Penno
Waikato		Lance Adams-Schneider			5,063		Brian West
Waipa	New electorate			Marilyn Waring	4,906		John Kilbride
Wairarapa		Ben Couch			837		Allan Levett
Waitakere	New electorate			Ralph Maxwell	2,016		Bill Haresnape
Waitaki	New electorate			Jonathan Elworthy	1,315		Bill Laney
Waitotara	New electorate			Venn Young	4,109		Edith Charteris
Wallace		Brian Talboys			5,324		Jim Thomson
Wanganui		Russell Marshall			3,102		John Rowan
Wellington Central		Ken Comber			916		Neville Pickering
West Coast		Paddy Blanchfield		Kerry Burke	5,647		George Ferguson
Western Hutt		Bill Lambert		John Terris	168		Bill Lambert
Whangarei		John Elliott			1,176		Colin Moyle
Yaldhurst	New electorate			Mick Connelly	1,638		David Watson
Māori electorates
Eastern Maori		Paraone Reweti			7,400		Monty Searancke
Northern Maori		Matiu Rata			4,844		Joe Toia
Southern Maori		Whetu Tirikatene-Sullivan			9,180		Charles Piharo Maitai
Western Maori		Koro Wētere			9,719		Gordon Pihema

Table footnotes:

Map

Summary of changes

For details about the winners of each individual electorate, see the article on the 39th Parliament.

• Electoral redistributions:
  • A major reconfiguration of electorates and their boundaries occurred in 1977. This resulted in twenty-two electorates being dissolved and twenty-seven new electorates being formed (a net gain of five electorates).
  • The seats of Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Egmont, Franklin, Grey Lynn, Henderson, Hobson, Hutt, Karori, Manukau, Oamaru, Petone, Piako, Raglan, Rakaia, Riccarton, Rodney, Ruahine, South Canterbury, Stratford, Waitemata, and Wigram ceased to exist.
  • The seats of Albany, Ashburton, Bay of Islands, East Cape, Eastern Hutt, Fendalton, Hauraki, Helensville, Horowhenua, Hunua, Kaimai, Kaipara, Matamata, Ohariu, Papakura, Papatoetoe, Pencarrow, Rangiriri, Selwyn, Taranaki, Tarawera, Te Atatu, Waipa, Waitakere, Waitaki, Waitotara, and Yaldhurst came into being.
• Seats captured:
  • By Labour: Hastings, Lyttelton, Manurewa, Palmerston North, Papanui, Taupo, and Western Hutt were captured from National.
  • By National: None
  • By Social Credit: None
• Seats transferred from departing MPs to new MPs:
  • The seats of Clutha, Manawatu, Marlborough, Pakuranga, and Rotorua, all held by departing National MPs, were won by new National candidates.
  • The seats of Dunedin North, Island Bay, St Albans, and West Coast, all held by departing Labour MPs, were won by new Labour candidates.

References

• Atkinson, Neill (2003). Adventures in Democracy: A History of the Vote in New Zealand. Dunedin: University of Otago Press.
• Bohan, Edmund (2004). Burdon: a man of our time. Hazard Press. ISBN 978-1-877270-90-1. OCLC 62718931. Retrieved 20 June 2015.
• Chapman, Robert (1999). New Zealand Politics and Social Patterns: Selected Works. Victoria University Press. ISBN 9780864733610. Retrieved 1 September 2015.
• Chapman, George (1980). The Years of Lightning. Wellington: AH & AW Reed. ISBN 0-589-01346-7.
• Gustafson, Barry (1986). The First 50 Years : A History of the New Zealand National Party. Auckland: Reed Methuen. ISBN 0-474-00177-6.
• McRobie, Alan (1989). Electoral Atlas of New Zealand. Wellington: GP Books. ISBN 0-477-01384-8.
• Norton, Clifford (1988). New Zealand Parliamentary Election Results 1946–1987: Occasional Publications No 1, Department of Political Science. Wellington: Victoria University of Wellington. ISBN 0-475-11200-8.
• Wilson, James Oakley (1985) [First published in 1913]. New Zealand Parliamentary Record, 1840–1984 (4th ed.). Wellington: V.R. Ward, Govt. Printer. OCLC 154283103.